2011年的天灾进一步加大了压力，促使更多的日本制造企业迁往海外。数年来，尽管日本经济疲软，但日元却保持着坚挺之势。就在去年的海啸灾难刚刚发生后，富国的中央银行就不得不进行联合干预——并非要防止日元贬值，而是要阻止日元的进一步升值。一些经济学家认为日元不可能永远逆向升值下去。但大多数日本企业家还是不得不作出计划来，以便进行一场无限期的“高空走钢丝表演”。
Takehide Takahashi of the Japan Auto Parts Industries Association (JAPIA), a lobby group, says he has given up hope of a weaker yen. Sony, an electronics giant, has long been globalising production. It says that, by increasing the proportion of its dollar-based costs, it has reduced its sensitivity to dollar-yen movements “essentially to zero”. However, it is harder to shift costs to the euro area, so it loses ￥60 billion ($730m) in operating profit for every one-yen appreciation in the exchange rate with the euro.
日本汽车产业协会（JAPIA）是一个院外活动团体，高桥武英（Takehide Takahashi）是其成员之一。他说自己对日元贬值已经不抱希望了。索尼公司是一家电子产品巨头，这家企业一直在推行生产全球化政策。该公司说，通过增加以美元为基础的成本支出比例，该公司已经将美元对日元汇率波动对公司的影响减小到“接近于零。”然而在欧元区的成本支出方式却很难改变，因而只要日元与欧元交换汇率升值1日元，该公司就会白白损失了600亿日元（7.3亿美元）的毛利润。
The new big worry is electricity. Just before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, nuclear power provided almost 30% of Japan’s electricity, and the government planned to increase that to 50% by 2030. Since last month Japan for the first time in decades has been without any nuclear generation. A reliable supply of relatively cheap electricity can no longer be taken for granted.
最让人担心的是电力供应，这是一个新出现的问题。在福岛核灾难发生之前，几乎30%的日本电力供应来自核电站。日本政府计划到2030年时将这一比例增加至50%。从上个月开始，日本几十年来头一次没有了来自核电站的电力供应。可靠而又相对廉价的电力供应不再是理所当然的了。
The yen and electricity are only two of a long list of worries. There is the risk of another earthquake—especially a long-feared “big one” for Tokyo. A shrinking population means a dwindling domestic market. Corporate taxes are high, and the labour market rigid. And as others race to sign bilateral and regional free-trade arrangements, Japan is largely a spectator.
令人忧虑的问题有长长一大串，日元与电力供应问题只是其中的两个。有出现另一场地震的危险，特别是出现一场人们长期以来所担心的东京地区的“大地震”。人口下降则意味着国内市场的萎缩。公司税高企，劳动力市场僵化。当别的国家和地区忙着签署双边和地区自由贸易协定时，日本大体上还只是一个看客。
A number of factors, however, are slowing the rush for the exits. The first is that so much production in the most vulnerable industries has already shifted. Then there is the vexed question of where to move to. China, with the magnetic pull of its huge, fast-growing economy, tops the list. But there are worries about rising Chinese labour costs, the rule of law, the security of intellectual property, a recent economic slowdown and even, with a leadership tussle apparently under way, political stability.
然而，诸多因素正在使这股制造业海外转移之潮减缓下来。首先就是最脆弱行业中大量的生产能力已经转移到海外了。接着就出现了应该将这些生产能力转移到哪里这个争论不休的问题。中国经济总量巨大，发展迅猛，具有很强的吸引力，当然位居待选名单的前列了。但人们也担忧中国正在上涨的劳动力成本、法律法规、知识产权保护及最近出现的经济减速等问题。让人们更担心的是，伴随着中国最高领导层似乎正在出现的权力争斗，会出现政治不稳定的局面。
Other favoured countries for Japanese outward investment face troubles of their own. Thailand, one of the most popular destinations, is far from a paragon of stability itself. Moreover, having suffered the agony of the tsunami at home, many Japanese firms then faced supply-chain disruption from floods later in the year in Thailand. Though described as a “once in 50 years” disaster, many fear floods could recur quite a bit sooner.
日本海外投资的其他待选国家也面临着各自出现的问题。泰国是一个最受日本投资者青睐的投资对象国，但该国政治也远远谈不上非常稳定。此外，许多日本企业除了在本土遭受到海啸袭击的灾难，去年末在泰国还面临着由于遭受洪水袭击而带来“供应链”断裂的局面。虽然这场洪灾被形容为“50年一遇”，许多人还是担心洪水泛滥的局面很快就会再现。
（责任编辑:admin）
